GST impact on inflation – Real impact on common man

by Paras Mehra 3.05K

Introduction

Globally, it has been observed that GST had a long-term impact on the economy despite having some short term outrages. In India, what we have is a compromised GST (or Indian GST we can say) and not the ideal GST. However, it is better to have muddy roads than to have no roads at all.

As said, Indian GST is not the ideal one, but it is being modified to suit the needs of the nation. For example, a single rate under GST is ideal; however, it will have a direct impact on inflation which would hurt the common man directly. Hence, in order to safeguard the common man, it was proposed to have multiple tax structure which is not an ideal one, but currently in the nation’s interest.

Inflation – Meaning

When the same amount of currency buys fewer goods and services or when there is a fall in the value of purchasing power of the currency, then that situation is termed as Inflation. In India, inflation is measured by changes in Wholesale Price Index (WPI) or Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Impact of GST on Consumer Price Index (CPI)

As per the proposed tax structure, it is estimated that there would be the positive impact on goods of basic necessity as there would be little or no tax at all. As per the finance minister Arun Jaitley, 50% of the items covered under Consumer Price Index (CPI) shall not be taxed. Further, items of mass consumption will be under 5% bracket. Hence, against all the odds, the coming GST may wipe some tears of the poor in India.

Global Phenomenon

Internationally, many countries saw a short-term spike in the inflation which was settled in a longer run. However, Indian GST is the bit different what the world has implemented and hence, it would not be ideal to compare the Indian situation with the world.

Let us assess the impact of inflation due to the advent of GST.

Under GST regime, the service sector may get inflated by the additional 3% if services are taxed at 18% which are more likely to be. Currently, services are taxed at 15% (basic rate 14%, 0.5% Swachh Bharat Cess, 0.5% Krishi Kalyan Cess).

The removal of the cascading system will bring in some relief for the service industry. Currently, under CENVAT rules, service providers are not allowed to avail the credit of VAT paid on inputs and capital goods. This ultimately adds up to the total cost of services.Under GST regime, the removal of cascading effect will bring in certain relief to the sector, but the additional burden will have its own impact.

As per the council meeting and the decision on GST tax rate, the luxury item is set to be taxed at a higher rate of 28% which may further increase by additional cess. This rate is also called a demerit rate under GST. The demerit rate shall also be extended to tobacco products.

Further, let us see what other watch dogs have to say about the GST impact on inflation;

“About 55 percent of the basket of items in the consumer price index (CPI) is exempt from GST. The State and Centre have built a uniform list of items that will be excluded from GST. As most of the items in the CPI basket will not be affected, the impact of GST implementation on inflation becomes marginal.”

RBI Deputy Governor Urjit Patel

“Poor will largely be protected under the GST since 53-54 percent of the CPI basket will be exempt from it, 30-35 percent will be taxed at a lower rate, and only 12-13 percent will be taxed at the normal rate. Thus, there is no obvious reason as to why GST implementation will bring about a spike in inflation.”

Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian

“Service tax rate is definitely going to go up from the current 15 percent rate. However, as estimated by Subramanian’s panel, at 18 percent RNR, the net impact will be minimal.”

Disposal Saha, Economist at Antique Research

As said, there are all speculations from the industry, economist, watchdogs and the government. However, things will be clear once the GST is implemented and actual impact can be assessed.

Conclusion

Inflation is one of the most important terms for any person especially the common man. Know more about the impact of GST, subscribe to our online monthly magazine.

 

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